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Statistics · AP · Probability, Random Variables, and Probability Distributions

CED focus

Conditional Probability

This topic is assessed on the AP Exam.

Multiple-choice tips

  • Check independence and equally likely outcomes assumptions.
  • Eliminate P(A and B) vs P(A|B) confusions.
  • Identify binomial/geometric settings from MC wording.
  • Verify probabilities sum to 1 on distribution MC.

Free-response tips

  • Define random variable and state distribution assumptions.
  • Show probability calculations with correct notation.
  • Interpret expected value in context.
  • Check that probabilities are valid (0–1, sum to 1).

Common traps

  • Adding probabilities of overlapping events incorrectly
  • Assuming independence without justification
  • Misidentifying binomial n and p

Quick checklist

  • [ ] Can compute a conditional probability in context
  • [ ] Can identify a binomial setting
  • [ ] Can interpret expected value with units

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